2012 Tony Award Predictions

The cast of 'Clybourne Park' on Broadway — Photo courtesy of Nathan Johnson

With the 2012 Tony Awards just a couple weeks away, it’s time to separate the winners from the losers. Most critics believe it was a weak year for musicals, but a stellar year for new plays. Standouts among the dozens of offerings were Clybourne Park, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Follies, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess, Once and Newsies.

The best productions occurred in the competitive Best Musical Revival category, where Follies and The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess face off. Several of the acting categories are also quite competitive, with many celebrated performances. From Nina Arianda in Venus in Fur to Linda Lavin in The Lyons, it’s a fairly difficult year to predict the winners.

But here’s our best guesses…

BEST  PLAY

Will & Should Win: Clybourne Park

Potential Spoiler: Other Desert Cities

BEST MUSICAL

Will Win: Once

Should Win: Newsies

Potential Spoiler: Newsies

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Enda Walsh, Once

Potential Spoiler: Harvey Fierstein, Newsies

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will & Should Win: Alan Menken and Jack Feldman, Newsies

Potential Spoiler: Grant Olding, One Man, Two Guvnors

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Will & Should Win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Potential Spoiler: Nothing

Audra McDonald and Norm Lewis in 'The Gershwin's Porgy and Bess' — Photo courtesy of Michael J. Lutch

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Potential Spoiler: Follies

BEST LEAD ACTOR, PLAY

Will & Should Win: James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors

Potential Spoiler: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

BEST LEAD ACTRESS, PLAY

Will Win: Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur

Should Win: Cynthia Nixon, Wit

Potential Spoiler: Linda Lavin, The Lyons

BEST LEAD ACTOR, MUSICAL

Will Win: Jeremy Jordan, Newsies

Should Win: Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Potential Spoiler: Steve Kazee, Once

BEST LEAD ACTRESS, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Potential Spoiler: Jan Maxwell, Follies

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY

Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Should Win: Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

Potential Spoiler: Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY

Will Win: Judith Light, Other Desert Cities

Should Win: Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Potential Spoiler: Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess

Potential Spoiler: Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL

Will Win: Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

Potential Spoiler: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

BEST DIRECTOR, PLAY

Will & Should Win: Mike Nichols, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Potential Spoiler: No one

Steve Kazee and Cristin Milioti in 'Once' on Broadway — Photo courtesy of Joan Marcus

BEST DIRECTOR, MUSICAL

Will Win: John Tiffany, Once

Should Win: Jeff Calhoun, Newsies

Potential Spoiler: Jeff Calhoun, Newsies

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Will & Should Win: Christopher Gattelli, Newsies

Potential Spoiler: No one

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Will Win: Martin Lowe, Once

Should Win: Danny Troob, Newsies

Potential Spoiler: Danny Troob, Newsies

BEST SCENIC DESIGN, PLAY

Will & Should Win: Daniel Ostling, Clybourne Park

Potential Spoiler: Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher

BEST SCENIC DESIGN, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, Ghost the Musical

Potential Spoiler: George Tsypin, Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark

The cast of 'One Man, Two Guvnors' on Broadway — Photo courtesy of Joan Marcus

BEST COSTUME DESIGN, PLAY

Will Win: Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors

Should Win: Paul Tazewell, A Streetcar Named Desire

Potential Spoiler: Paloma Young, Peter and the Starcatcher

BEST COSTUME DESIGN, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Eiko Ishioka, Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark

Potential Spoiler: Gregg Barnes, Follies

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN, PLAY

Will Win: Brian MacDevitt, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Should Win: Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher

Potential Spoiler: Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Hugh Vanstone, Ghost the Musical

Potential Spoiler: Natasha Katz, Once

BEST SOUND DESIGN, PLAY

Will & Should Win: Darron L. West, Peter and the Starcatcher

Potential Spoiler: Scott Lehrer, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

BEST SOUND DESIGN, MUSICAL

Will & Should Win: Clive Goodwin, Once

Potential Spoiler: Kai Harada, Follies

By Hollywood Soapbox

John Soltes

John Soltes is an award-winning journalist. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, Earth Island Journal, The Hollywood Reporter, New Jersey Monthly and at Time.com, among other publications.

E-mail him at john@hollywoodsoapbox.com

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